Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 10.256535 12.667251 15.385981 18.658954 22.471004 26.749237 31.891206
2025-04-20 6.875342 9.935576 13.814875 19.001611 25.653940 33.793838 44.389301
2025-04-27 5.144047 8.427910 12.986105 19.573465 28.621327 40.367345 56.486352
2025-05-04 4.075479 7.449881 12.509748 20.304083 31.608987 46.972404 68.914349
2025-05-11 3.255441 6.597189 11.977164 20.750192 34.090948 52.939693 80.770539
2025-05-18 2.532942 5.698056 11.165178 20.582132 35.552160 57.472981 90.830146
2025-05-25 1.907387 4.789210 10.140377 19.875615 36.036433 60.525025 98.863676
2025-06-01 1.497387 4.174534 9.491474 19.654818 37.185135 64.551483 108.452593
2025-06-08 1.112438 3.486910 8.562157 18.786942 37.140209 66.677385 115.242447
2025-06-15 0.947949 3.256635 8.476137 19.411603 39.621047 72.867700 128.500508
2025-06-22 0.718215 2.778105 7.777160 18.769068 39.812834 75.352962 136.072727
2025-06-29 0.616434 2.613754 7.727639 19.380396 42.268710 81.658796 149.957589
2025-07-06 0.403634 2.033327 6.633051 17.797707 40.725713 81.476923 153.926461
2025-07-13 0.323475 1.850185 6.468589 18.178650 42.962079 87.967771 169.312229
2025-07-20 0.265021 1.713780 6.390904 18.733949 45.576569 95.264850 186.393096
2025-07-27 0.221500 1.611866 6.381867 19.439536 48.540798 103.339745 205.149527
2025-08-03 0.179099 1.484938 6.266812 19.870324 50.967448 110.561407 222.748231
2025-08-10 0.133900 1.303873 5.933899 19.708035 52.123733 115.492177 236.565417
2025-08-17 0.092063 1.092887 5.433105 19.025873 52.081272 118.149126 246.465593
2025-08-24 0.066736 0.954133 5.131201 18.812721 53.032627 122.725224 259.959011
2025-08-31 0.042800 0.782058 4.637717 17.975058 52.475299 124.317548 268.088856
2025-09-07 0.034886 0.740298 4.645237 18.577947 55.302159 132.721690 289.036641
2025-09-14 0.022352 0.618255 4.265056 17.957809 55.168320 135.180679 299.041926